Forecasting demand accurately is one of the hardest and most important skills in e-commerce.
Data Sources
- Historical sales: Your best predictor is past performance
- Seasonality: Adjust for known seasonal patterns
- Growth trend: Are sales trending up or down?
- Planned promotions: Factor in deals, PPC increases, or launches
Simple Forecasting Method
Take average daily sales over the last 30, 60, and 90 days. Weight recent data more heavily. Multiply by lead time plus safety buffer.
Safety Stock
Keep a buffer of 2 to 4 weeks of safety stock for your best sellers. The cost of storage is far less than the cost of a stockout on your ranking.
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